From Panic to Possibility

In January 2020, a German doctor named Uğur Şahin came across a short scientific report describing a strange new virus detected in China. Most people barely noticed it. He couldn’t look away.

Şahin wasn’t a virologist. He was working on a new type of cancer treatment that trained the immune system to recognise and destroy cancer cells using messenger RNA. But something in that report made him pause. He ran the numbers. Then he ran them again. The virus, if it behaved the way he feared, could spread fast and kill hundreds of thousands of people in a matter of months.

The problem was, no one else seemed worried. He wasn’t even sure if he was right. So he did what many of us do when faced with major uncertainty: he hesitated. He doubted. He paced around his home office.

He couldn't find the information to confirm what he suspected. But at some point, he stopped trying to resolve the uncertainty and started imagining what he could do.

Could his experimental mRNA technology be used to create a vaccine? Would anyone listen to him? Would it even be possible?

Pfizer didn’t think so — at first. But Şahin kept going. He shared the idea with his team. He imagined what could be done. And eventually, he persuaded Pfizer to partner with his small biotech company, BioNTech.

Less than a year later, a nurse in Coventry gave the first COVID-19 vaccine shot in the world, a vaccine based on the vision Şahin had allowed himself to imagine.

Information Didn't Solve the Crisis, Imagination Did

If Şahin had waited for certainty, he would have been too late. The crucial turning point wasn’t when he got new data. It was when he allowed himself to see beyond the limits of what was known.

That’s the power of imagination in uncertain times.

Most of us were busy trying to understand what was happening — refreshing news sites, scanning data, looking for patterns. But uncertainty doesn’t behave like a puzzle you can solve with enough pieces. At some point, it stops being an information problem and becomes an imagination problem.

What makes someone like Şahin different isn’t just technical expertise. It’s a mindset and a willingness to engage with the unknown, rather than be paralysed by it.

Uncertainty as a Creative Trigger

The pandemic didn’t just shake global health systems. It shook habits, norms, assumptions. And in doing so, it opened up mental space.

Suddenly, things we had considered fixed, like where and how people work, became fluid. What once seemed risky, like remote work, became normal. What once felt too radical, like rapid vaccine development, became reality.

Disruption has a way of tearing holes in the fabric of "how things are done." And through those holes, imagination sneaks in.

We saw it everywhere:

• Businesses pivoted overnight.

• Cities rethought how streets could be used.

• Schools and universities reinvented their delivery models.

  
  

These weren’t just reactions. They were acts of imagination under pressure.

A Different Response to Uncertainty

In stable conditions, imagination often sits quietly in the background. But when the future becomes unstable, we’re forced to imagine different paths.

This doesn’t mean every response has to be revolutionary. It means that uncertainty can be productive, if we’re willing to engage with it imaginatively.

But here’s the challenge: most of us have been trained in an “information mindset” and to seek answers, avoid ambiguity, and stay on well-trodden ground. That mindset is excellent for optimisation. But it breaks down in the face of deep uncertainty.

What we need instead is an imagination mindset — a way of thinking that asks “What if?” rather than “What’s the answer?” A mindset that treats ambiguity not as a threat, but as an invitation to explore.

Making Space for Possibility

The lesson from Şahin’s story is this: imagination isn’t a luxury. It’s a core capability. It’s what allows us to move from panic to possibility.

And the good news is, it’s a skill we can develop:

• By making time to explore ideas before judging them.

• By suspending the need for immediate answers.

• By giving ourselves and others permission to think beyond what’s already known.

Because when uncertainty strikes, it’s not more information that sets you apart. It’s what you can imagine.

---

Want to be more futurist? Sign up for The DIY Futurist.