What people get wrong about uncertainty

Graham
Apr 23
2 min read

Uncertainty doesn't have to be a problem.

Yet we often make it one because we don't truly understand what we're uncertain about. I see this constantly—people mixing up different types of uncertainty and consequently getting confused about how to address them.

That's why I created this chart to explain the differences and their importance. It's structured around two critical dimensions.

First is timeframe: now versus the future. These represent fundamentally different uncertainties. When you're uncertain about Bolivia's capital, that information exists and is knowable—many people already know it with certainty. But no one knows what Bolivia's inflation rate will be next year.

The second dimension distinguishes between what you can control and what you can't. This boundary is admittedly fuzzy, but the distinction remains crucial, especially when considering the future. Being uncertain about your next holiday destination differs dramatically from being uncertain about electric vehicle sales next year. You can push yourself to decide on the holiday, but no amount of effort will reveal a precise EV sales figure.

When we combine these dimensions, four distinct situations emerge:

Present facts you don't know but could easily look up.
Major external forces beyond your control that create genuine uncertainty. You can't eliminate this uncertainty, but you can employ futurist techniques like scenario planning to better understand potential outcomes.
Daily micro-decisions about what to eat, wear, or watch. You probably overthink these choices, despite their minimal impact on your long-term wellbeing. Best to automate these decisions whenever possible.
Uncertainty about your desired future—surprisingly common and typically stemming from unclear personal values. The solution is to create and mentally "try on" different future visions. For those that resonate, develop actionable plans.

When you clearly identify which type of uncertainty you're experiencing, you can respond appropriately. There's no sense in agonising over dinner choices. Similarly, taking a passive "wait and see" approach to major global developments is both pointless and potentially dangerous.

When facing future uncertainties, maximise your control by taking decisive, appropriate action.

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