Full-Spectrum Thinking

We humans have an almost irresistible urge to predict the future, and an equally impressive track record of getting it wrong. From Victorian engineers dismissing the telephone to modern pundits making bold but faulty forecasts, history is littered with confident misjudgments.

The problem isn’t that we’re foolish, but that our brains are wired to simplify uncertainty into single answers. That works fine for the short term, but it fails us when we try to think long-term.

In this talk, Graham explores why we’re addicted to prediction, why it limits our strategic thinking, and how to replace it with something far more powerful: full-spectrum thinking. Using the metaphor of a prism, he shows how to split a single forecast into a range of possibilities — from the probable to the surprising — so we can prepare for whatever the future holds.

By trading predictions for possibilities, we can become more confident, agile, and imaginative in shaping the years ahead.

Key Takeaways

1. Predictions are comforting but flawed – Our brains are wired to simplify uncertainty into single answers, but history shows even the smartest predictions often miss the mark.

2. Thinking in possibilities beats betting on one outcome – By exploring a spectrum of plausible futures instead of locking into one forecast, we’re better equipped to adapt and thrive.

3. Full-spectrum thinking builds confidence and agility – Like a prism revealing all the colors in light, this mindset helps us anticipate extremes, spot surprises, and make more resilient long-term decisions.

Top Soundbites

“History is littered with learned people making terrible predictions.”

“Our mental models work well in the short term, but they fail us when we try to think long term.”

“Instead of giving a prediction, offer several options. You’ll both be smarter for it.”

Transcription

One of the biggest barriers to thinking strategically about the future is uncertainty. Ever since humans have had to make decisions, we've been trying to resolve the uncertainties by making predictions. 

And, of course, these predictions are routinely wrong. One of my favorites is this one:

"The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys."

That was said by Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post Office, 1878.

William Preece was probably an educated man, who managed to get himself a pretty good job in the Post Office and a knighthood along the way. Yet even for him it was inconceivable at the time that people would have telephones in their homes.

And of course, he was dead wrong.

In fact, history is littered with learned people making terrible predictions. Demonstrating how hard it is the understand the future, and how easy it is to overestimate or underestimate the influence of current trends.

How did we develop what I call an addiction to prediction?

For a long time, psychologists believed that we perceive the world around us directly through our senses. But recent research shows it's not quite like that. What really happens is that your mind creates an image of what it thinks is happening, and your senses confirm it. So you only notice what is outside that prediction.   

So, for example, if you go into your kitchen in the morning and everything is where it should be, the cupboards, the coffee machine, the sink, then you won't really notice anything. But if your fridge is missing, then your brain is going to register an error, and will start asking you questions like how you're going to put milk in your tea.

This prediction machine between your ears works well because it means your mind can ignore most of the overwhelming amount of sensory information being fed into.

It also means that when someone asks you what's going to happen, it's the most natural thing in the world to offer a single answer, a prediction.

You can see it from political and sports pundits on TV, we all do it every day.

Our mental models work well in making predictions in the short term, but these models fail us when we try to use them to think in the long term.

To make sense of the future, predictions don't serve us well.

Instead, we need to be thinking in terms of possibilities.

To demonstrate what I mean, I use the prism as a metaphor.

When you see white light, it gives you just a single perspective, like a prediction. But a prism takes white light and splits it into its component parts, so you can see all the colors.

Some might be brighter than others, you might like some colors more than others, but they are all there for you to see.

So the prism allows you to have full-spectrum thinking about what could happen.

Think of it like this. The light you shine in is a dimension of uncertainty, which could be some disruptive technology, or economic or political uncertainty.

The prism itself determines the timeframe. Because what's possible in 10 years is very different from what's possible in 3 years. 

Then you need to look at the spectrum of possibilities it produces. What are the extremes, the red and violet in your spectrum? What are the more unusual possibilities, the cyan or indigo?

What we're really doing here is producing scenarios in your mind, and the more you create, the smarter you'll become about the future.

Let's use the example of AI and jobs in 2035.

• Mass Displacement - AI eliminates more jobs than it creates, leading to widespread unemployment across sectors and growing economic inequality.

• Job Transformation - Most roles evolve rather than disappear, with humans working alongside AI in complementary partnerships that increase productivity.

• Skills Polarisation - Labor market splits between high-skilled, high-paying AI-adjacent roles and low-paying service jobs that require human touch.

• New Job Renaissance - AI creates entirely new job categories at such scale that employment actually increases, similar to how the internet created millions of previously unimaginable roles.

When you adopt full-spectrum thinking, your mind becomes more agile. You'll become more confident about the future because you'll have thought through the possibilities, and you'll be a much more interesting conversation partner at dinner this evening.

So when someone asks you what you think could happen, instead of giving a prediction, offer several options. You'll both be smarter for it.

---

Want to be more futurist? Sign up for The DIY Futurist.