Overcoming the Psychological Allergy to Uncertainty

Uncertainty is uncomfortable because our brains crave prediction. We would rather know something bad is coming than sit with the unknown. But uncertainty isn't the enemy. It's the raw material for creativity and foresight. This talk reframes uncertainty as a leadership advantage, not a threat.

Through stories like the Cavendish banana (certainty = fragility) and the UCL electric shock study (our fear of the “maybe”), we see why resilience alone is not enough. Instead, we need imagination and mental time travel to explore possible futures and prepare for them. Leaders who can embrace uncertainty and harness it as a creative force will not just survive disruption... they will shape what comes next.

Key Takeaways

1. Certainty feels safe but makes us fragile. Leaders must challenge their addiction to prediction.

2. Resilience alone is not enough. Bouncing forward requires imagination and future readiness.

3. Uncertainty is opportunity. By practicing mental time travel, we can turn discomfort into strategic clarity.

   
   
   
   

Top 5 Soundbites

“We’d rather know something bad is going to happen… than sit with the possibility that it might.”

“Uncertainty isn’t the enemy. It's the raw material of the future.”

“Resilience is like eating your vegetables. Important? Sure. Transformative? Not on its own.”

“The real opportunity isn’t in bouncing back. It's in bouncing forward.”

“You can train your brain to visit the future, not to predict it, but to play in it.”

Transcription

You ever feel like the future is just... too much?

I was talking to a client the other day, a smart, capable leader. But she said something that stuck with me.

She said, “I’m fine when things are tough. I can handle pressure. What I can’t stand is not knowing what’s coming next.”

And I get it. Most of us are like that. We’d rather know something bad is going to happen… than sit with the possibility that it might.

It’s what I call our psychological allergy to uncertainty.

But here’s the twist: What if uncertainty wasn’t the problem? What if it was… the solution?

We are wired for prediction.

Your brain is constantly scanning the environment, trying to answer one question: “What’s going to happen next?”

And when it can’t?

We go a bit crazy.

There’s a brilliant study from University College London.

They hooked people up to machines and gave them a game: flip over a rock, maybe there’s a snake underneath, maybe not.

If there is, then zap! An electric shock.

What they found was eye-opening:

People who knew they’d get shocked were less stressed than those who weren’t sure.

That’s how much we hate uncertainty. We’d rather take the hit than live in the maybe.

But here’s the thing: modern life is a maybe.

We’re dealing with rapid change, global disruptions, AI, climate shifts. And none of it has a script. And our old playbook, of gather more data, make a safe prediction, doesn’t work anymore.

Now, when we hit uncertainty, the standard advice is: “Be more resilient.”

Like we’re supposed to just bounce back, like emotional rubber bands.

But let me tell you: resilience is like eating your vegetables. Important? Sure.

Transformative? Not on its own.

The real opportunity isn’t in bouncing back. It’s in bouncing forward.

Let me give you a metaphor I love: the banana.

Not just any banana, the Cavendish. That perfect yellow clone you get in every supermarket.

They’re genetically identical. Every one. Predictable. Certain.

And totally vulnerable.

One disease hits them, and no more bananas.

We crave certainty like we crave those perfect bananas. But it makes us fragile.

The alternative? A little mess. A little unpredictability. That’s what keeps us resilient, in the real sense.

So how do we work with uncertainty, instead of against it?

The answer is imagination.

And no, I don’t mean unicorns and goblins. I mean mental time travel.

You can train your brain to visit the future, not to predict it, but to play in it.

To ask: What might happen? What if it does? What would I do then?

This is the core of strategic foresight.

It’s how we move from reactive to proactive.

From panicked to prepared.

From frozen to focused.

So here’s my challenge for you:

What’s one thing in your life or your work that you’re avoiding, because the future feels too uncertain?

That… right there… is your opportunity.

Uncertainty isn’t your enemy. It’s your raw material.

Use it well, and you’ll do more than survive the future.

You’ll shape it.

---

Want to be more futurist? Sign up for The DIY Futurist.